Pushing back the baseline: A novel approach to detect long-term changes in terrestrial faunal abundance using historical qualitative descriptions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1515/eje-2015-0005Keywords:
Birds, Cambridgeshire, historical records, Jenyns, land use change, long-term, population, qualitative dataAbstract
Studies that examine changes in the populations of flora and fauna often do so against a baseline of relatively recent distribution data. It is much rarer to see evaluations of population change over the longer–term in order to extend the baseline back in time. Here, we use two methods (regression analysis and line of equality) to identify long-term differences in abundance derived from qualitative descriptions, and we test the efficacy of this approach by comparison with contemporary data. We take descriptions of bird population abundance in Cambridgeshire, UK, from the first half of the 19th century and compare these with more recent estimates by converting qualitative descriptions to an ordinal scale. We show, first, that the ordinal scale of abundance corresponds well to quantitative estimates of density and range size based on current data, and, second, that the two methods of comparison revealed both increases and declines in species, some of which were consistent using both approaches but others showed differing responses. We also show that the regional rates of extinction (extirpation) for birds are twice as high as equivalent rates for plants. These data extend analyses of avifaunal change back to a baseline 160-190 years before present, thus bringing a novel perspective on long-term change in populations and categories of conservation concern (e.g., Amber- or Red-lists) based on recent data. Changes in status are discussed in relation to various factors, although perhaps the most pervasive were of anthropogenic origin.
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UK.
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British Isles. Acta Ornithologica (Warsaw), 14, 91-101.
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bird population from 1940 to 1989. Journal of the Iowa Academy
of Science, 97, 115-120.
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Press, Cambridge, UK.
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decline assessment, historical baselines, and conservation.
Conservation Letters, 3, 371-378.
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Bay area 1927-2005. Western Birds, 38, 102-136.
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of bird diversity in forest and suburb: decay, turnover or
homogenization? Diversity and Distributions, 16, 559-570.
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Gull. Journal of Animal Ecology, 44, 187-203.
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performance of skylarks Alauda arvensis in different regions
and habitats of the United Kingdom. Ibis, 141, 38-51.
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the British and Western Palearctic lists. British Birds, 99,
306-323.
Crompton, G. (no date) Cambridgeshire Flora Records since 1538. Retrieved
from http://www.mnlg.com/gc/index2.html
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Bird Populations in the UK, 1970 TO 2010. Defra. Retrieved from
http://www.bto.org/sites/default/files/u38/downloads/homenews/
2011-11/Wild-bird-populations-in-the-UK-1970-2010-National-
Statistics-Release.pdf
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Bunting. British Birds, 87, 106-132.
Eaton, M.A., Cuthbert, R., Dunn, E., Grice, P.V., Hall, C., Hayhow, D.B.,
Hearn, R.D., Holt, C.A., Knipe, A., Marchant, J.H., Mavor, R.,
Moran, N.J., Mukhida F., Musgrove, A.J., Noble, D.G., Oppel, S.,
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org.uk/Images/SUKB_2012_tcm9-328339.pdf
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Cambridgeshire. Retrieved from http://www.friendsofsedgwickmuseum.
com/The_Mapping_of_Landscapes_Geology_and_
Soils_of_Bedfordshire_and_Cambridgeshire_small_file.pdf
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153-181.
Freeman, S.N., Noble, D.G., Newson, S.E. & Baillie, S.R. (2007) Modelling
population changes using data from different surveys: the
Common Birds Census and the Breeding Bird Survey. Bird Study,
54, 61-72.
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reserve. Harley Books, Colchester, UK.
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Wicken Fen. Harley Books, Colchester, UK.
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1: a review of losses and gains in the twentieth century. British
Birds, 101, 644-675.
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of Breeding Birds in Britain and Ireland: 1988-1991. Poyser,
London, UK.
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Retrieved from http://www.bou.org.uk/british-list/bird-names/
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and threats to the Corncrake Crex crex in Europe. Vogelwelt, 118,
117-134.
Gregory, R.D., Wilkinson, N.I., Noble, D.G., Robinson, J.A., Brown, A.F.,
Hughes, J., Proctor, D., Gibbons, D.W. & Galbraith, C.A. (2002)
The population status of birds in the United Kingdom, Channel
Islands and Isle of Man: an analysis of conservation concern. British
Birds, 95, 410-450.
Hengeveld, R. & Van Den Bosch, F. (1979) The expansion velocity of the
Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto population in Europe. Ardea,
79, 67-72.
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for the United Kingdom. HMSO, London, UK.
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Ireland: 1875-1900. Poyser, London, UK.
Holt, C.A., Hewson, C.M. & Fuller, R.J. (2012) The Nightingale in Britain:
status, ecology and conservation needs. British Birds, 105, 172-
187.
Jefferies, D.J. (1989) The changing otter population of Britain 1700-
1989. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 38, 61-69.
Jeromin, K. (1999) The breeding birds of the village of Labenz in 1931
and 1995–change in village structures and bird populations. Corax,
18, 88-103.
Kirby, J.S, Haines, W.G. & Austin, G.E. (1999) Translocation of Canada
Geese Branta canadensis in Great Britain. Ringing & Migration,
19, 261-271.
Kirtland, C.A.E. (1976) The importance of gravel pits to the present
Cambridgeshire avifauna. Nature in Cambridgeshire, 19, 35-37.
Kornberg, H. & Williamson, M.H. (Eds.) (1987) Quantitative Aspects of
the Ecology of Biological Invasions. Royal Society, London, UK.
Lilford, L. (1895) Notes on the Birds of Northamptonshire and Neighbourhood,
Porter, London, UK.
Lovegrove, R. (2007) Silent Fields. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Lowther, P.E. (1984) Repeat of a 1916 bird census in Northwestern Iowa
USA. Proceedings of the Iowa Academy of Science, 91, 87-91.
Marchant, J.H., Hudson, R., Carter, S.P. & Whittington, P. (1990) Population
Trends in British Breeding Birds. British Trust for Ornithology,
Tring, UK.
Martínez-Abraín, A., Crespo, J., Berdugo, M., Gutíerrez, L., Lafuente, A.,
Manas, A. & De Miguel, J.M. (2013) Causes of human impact to
protected vertebrate wildlife parallel long-term socio-economical
changes in Spain. Animal Conservation, 16, 286-294.
McCollin, D., Moore, L., Sparks, T. (2000) The flora of a cultural landscape:
environmental determinants of change revealed using
archival sources. Biological Conservation, 92, 249-263.
Merne, O.J. (1997) Herring Gull. In: Hagemeijer, W.J.M., Blair, M.J.
(Eds.), The EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds. Poyser, London,
UK, pp. 338-339.
Miller, J.H. (2011) Ghosts of Yellowstone: multi-decadal histories of
wildlife populations captured by bones on a modern landscape.
PLOS One, 6(3), e18057-e18057.
Newson, S.E., Marchant, J.H., Ekins. G.R. & Sellers, R.M. (2007) The
status of inland-breeding Great Cormorants in England. British
Birds, 100, 289-299.
Nowakowski, J.J. (1996) Changes in the breeding avifauna of Olsztyn
(NE Poland) in the years 1968-1993. Acta Ornithologica (Warsaw),
31, 39-44.
O’Connor, R.J. & Shrubb, M. (1986) Farming and Birds. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK.
Ogilvie, M. (1996) Rare breeding birds in the United Kingdom in 1993.
British Birds, 89, 61-91.
Ortega-Alvarez, R., Sanchez-Gonzalez, L.A., Rodriguez-Contreras, V.,
Vargas-Canales, V.M., Puebla-Olivares, F. & Berlanga, H. (2012)
Birding for and with people: integrating local participation in
avian monitoring programs within high biodiversity areas in
southern Mexico. Sustainability, 4, 1984-1998.
Papworth, S.K., Rist, J., Coad, L., Milner-Gulland, E.J. (1999) Evidence
for shifting baseline syndrome in conservation. Conservation
Letters, 2, 93-100.
Perring, F.H., Sell, P.D., Walters, S.M. & Whitehouse, H.L.K. (Eds.) (1964)
A Flora of Cambridgeshire. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK.
Peterson, A. T., Navarro-Sigüenza, A. G., Martínez-Meyer, E., Cuervo-
Robayo, A. P., Berlanga, H., & Soberón, J. (2015). Twentieth century
turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: landscape change
versus climate drivers. Science Advances, 1(4), e1400071.
Plantlife (2012) Our Vanishing Flora – how wild flowers are disappearing
across Britain, Plantlife, Salisbury, UK.
Potts, G.R. (1970) Recent changes in the farmland fauna with special
reference to the decline of the Grey Partridge. Bird Study, 17,
145-166.
Preece, R.C. & Sparks, T.H. (Eds.) (2012) Fauna Cantabrigiensis: The
vertebrate and molluscan fauna of Cambridgeshire by the Rev.
Leonard Jenyns (1800-1893): transcript and commentaries. The
Ray Society, London,UK.
Robbins, C.S., Droege, S. & Sauer, J.R. (1989) Monitoring bird populations
with Breeding Bird Survey and atlas data. Annales Zoologici
Fennici, 26, 297-304.
Saenz-Arroyo, A., Roberts, C.M., Torre, J., Carino-Olvera, M. & Hawkins,
J.P. (2006) The value of evidence about past abundance: marine
fauna of the Gulf of California through the eyes of 16th to 19th
century travellers. Fish and Fisheries, 7, 128-146.
Schulte, L.A., Pidgeon, A.M. & Mladenoff, D.J. (2005) One hundred
fifty years of change in forest bird breeding habitat: estimates
of species distributions. Conservation Biology, 19, 1944-1956.
Shaffer, H.B., Fisher, R.N. & Davidson, C. (1998) The role of natural history
collections in documenting species declines. Trends Ecol.
Evol. 13, 27-30.
Sharrock, J.T.R. (1976) The Atlas of Breeding Birds in Britain and Ireland.
Poyser, London, UK.
Shrubb, M. (2003) Birds, Scythes and Combines. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK.
Shrubb, M. (2013) Feasting, Fowling and Feathers. A history of the exploitation
of wild birds. Poyser, London, UK.
Stehlik, I., Caspersen, J.P., Wirth, L. & Holderegger, R. (2007) Floral
freefall in the Swiss lowlands: environmental determinants of
local plant extinction in a peri-urban landscape. Journal of Ecology,
95, 734-744.
Tait, C.J., Daniels, C.B. & Hill, R.S. (2005) Changes in species assemblages
within the Adelaide Metropolitan Area, Australia, 1836-2002.
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Copyright (c) 2015 Duncan McCollin, Richard C. Preece, Tim H. Sparks
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How to Cite
McCollin, D., Preece, R. C., & Sparks, T. H. (2015). Pushing back the baseline: A novel approach to detect long-term changes in terrestrial faunal abundance using historical qualitative descriptions. European Journal of Ecology, 1(1), 32-42. https://doi.org/10.1515/eje-2015-0005
