Quantifying whether different demographic models produce incongruent results on population dynamics of two long-term studied rodent species
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1515/eje-2017-0003Keywords:
Rodent population dynamics, demographic models, long-term study, italyAbstract
1. Population density (ind/ha) of long-term (>15 years) series of CMR populations, using distinct demographic models designed for both open and closed populations, were analysed for two sympatric species of rodents (Myodes glareolus and Apodemus flavicollis) from a mountain area in central Italy, in order to test the relative performance of various employed demographic models. In particular, the hypothesis that enumeration models systematically underestimate the population size of a given population was tested.
2. Overall, we compared the performance of 7 distinct demographic models, including both closed and open models, for each study species. Although the two species revealed remarkable intrinsic differences in demography traits (for instance, a lower propensity for being recaptured in Apodemus flavicollis), the Robust Design appeared to be the best fitting model, showing that it is the most suitable model for long-term studies.
3. Among the various analysed demographic models, Jolly-Seber returned the lower estimates of population density for both species. Thus, this demographic model could not be suggested for being applied for long-term studies of small mammal populations because it tends to remarkably underestimate the effective population size. Nonetheless, yearly estimates of population density by Jolly-Seber correlated positively with yearly estimates of population density by closed population models, thus showing that interannual trends in population dynamics were uncovered by both types of demographic models, although with different values in terms of true population size.
References
likelihood principle. In: Proceeding of IEEE International Symposium
On Information Theory, Pages 267–281. Akademiai Kiado,
Budapest, Hungary.
Amori, G., Locasciulli, O., Tuccinardi, P. & Riga, F. (2000) Ecological structure
of a population of Chlethrionomys glareolus in central Italy:
an eight-year study. Polish Journal of Ecology, 48, 125–132.
Amori, G. & Luiselli, L. (2011a) Growth patterns in free-ranging yellownecked
wood mice, Apodemus flavicollis. Mammalian Biology,
76, 129–132.
Amori, G. & Luiselli, L. (2011b) Growth patterns in free-ranging bank
voles, Myodes glareolus (Schreber 1780) from a mountainous
area in central Italy. Mammalia, 75, 41–44.
Amori, G., Castigliani, V., Locasciulli, O. & Luiselli, L. (2015) Long-term
density fluctuations and microhabitat use of sympatric Apodemus
flavicollis and Myodes glareolus in central Italy. Community
Ecology, 16, 196–205.
Andrzejewski, R. (1975) Supplementary food and the winter dynamics
of bank vole populations. Acta Theriologica, 20, 23–40.
Begon, M. (1983) Abuses of mathematical methods in ecology: applications
of Jolly’s capture-recapture method. Oikos, 40, 155–158.
Boonstra, R. & Krebs, C.J. (2006) Population limitation of the northern
red-backed vole in the boreal forests of northern Canada. Journal
of Animal Ecology, 75, 1269–1284.
Boonstra, R. & Krebs, C.J. (2012) Population dynamics of red-back voles
(Myodes) in North America. Oecologia, 168, 601–620.
Bujalska, G. (1975) Reproduction and mortality of bank voles and the
changes in the size of an island population. Acta Theriologica,
20, 39–54.
Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. (2003) Model Selection and Multimodel
Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach, 2nd
edn. Springer, New York.
Canova, L., Filippini, S., Gaudenzi, G. & Fasola, M. (2003) Uso di stimatori
per la valutazione dell’abbondanza di popolazioni campionate
con metodi CMR. Hystrix, 2003, suppl. (IV Congr. It. Teriologia),
91–92.
Caughley, G. (1977) Analysis of vertebrate populations. John Wiley and
Sons, New York, USA.
Chao, A. (1988) Estimating animal abundance with capture frequency
data. Journal Wildlife Management, 52, 295–300.
Chao, A., Lee, S.M. & Jeng, S.L. (1992) Estimating Population Size for
Capture-Recapture Data when Capture Probabilities Vary by
Time and Individual Animal. Biometrics, 48, 201–216.
Chiari, S., Zauli, A., Mazziotta, A., Luiselli, L., Audisio, P. & Carpaneto,
G.M. (2013) Surveying an endangered saproxylic beetle, Osmoderma
eremita, in Mediterranean woodlands: a comparison
between different capture methods. Journal of Insect Conservation,
17, 171–181.
Cooch, E.G. & White, G.C. (2017) Program Mark: a gentle introduction,
17th edition. Available from http://www.phidot.org/software/
mark/docs/book/
Crawley, M.C. (1969) Movements and Home-Ranges of Clethrionomys
glareolus Schreber and Apodemus sylvaticus L. in North-East
England. Oikos, 20, 310–319.
Flowerdew, J.R. (1976) Ecological methods. Mammal Review, 6, 123–
159.
Garton, E.O., Ratti, J.T. & Giudice, J.H. (2005) Research and experimental
design. In: Braun, C.E. (ed.), Techniques for wildlife investigations and management, 43-71. The Wildlife Society, Bethesda,
Maryland, USA.
Gurnell, J. & Flowerdew, J.R. (1982) Live trapping small mammals. A
practical guide, 2nd Edition. The Mammal Society, London, U.K.
Gurnell, J. & Flowerdew, J.R. (1990) Live trapping small mammals. A
practical guide. 2nd Edition. The Mammal Society, London, U.K.
Hammond, E.L. & Anthony, R.G. (2006) Mark-recapture estimates of
population parameters for selected species of small mammals.
Journal of Mammalogy, 87, 618–627.
Hoyle, S.D., Pople, A.R. & Toop, A.G. (2001) Mark–recapture may reveal
more about ecology than about population trends: Demography
of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population. Austral
Ecology, 26, 80–92.
Kikkawa, J. (1964) Movement, activity and distribution of small rodents
Clethrionomys glareolus e Apodemus sylvaticus in woodland.
Journal Animal Ecology, 33, 259–299
Krebs, C.J. (1966) Demographic changes in fluctuating populations of
Microtus californicus. Ecological Monographs, 36, 239–273.
Krebs, C.J. (1999) Ecological Methodology, 2nd ed. Harper and Row
Publ., New York, N.Y.
Lambin, X., Brettagnolle, V. & Yoccoz, N.G. (2006) Vole population cycles
in northern and southern Europe: is there a need for different
explanations for single pattern? Journal of Animal Ecology, 75,
340–349.
Lancia, R.A., Nichols, J.D. & Pollock, K.H. (1994) Estimating the number
of animals in wildlife populations. In: Bookhout, T. (ed.). Research
and Management Techniques for Wildlife and Habitats,
215–253. The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Le Boulengé-Nguyen, P.Y. & Le Boulengé, E. (1986) A new ear tag for
small mammals. Journal of Zoology (London), 52, 302–304.
Lebreton, J.D., Burnham, K.P., Clobert, J. & Anderson, D.R. (1992) Modeling
survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked
animals: a unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs,
62, 67–118.
Locasciulli, O., Milana, G., Rocchi, F., Luiselli, L. & Amori, G. (2015) A
Cost-efficient novel live-trap for demographic studies of small
mammals. PeerJ PrePrints, 3, e1179v1.
Luiselli, L. & Capizzi, D. (1996) Composition of a small mammal community
studied by three comparative methods. Acta Theriologica,
41, 425–431.
Montgomery, W.I. (1987) The application of capture-mark-recapture
methods to the enumeration of small mammals populations.
Symposium of the Zoological Society of London, 58, 25–57.
Ogutu, J.O., Bhola, N., Piepho, H.P. & Reid, R. (2006) Efficiency of stripand
line-transect surveys of African savanna mammals. Journal
of Zoology (London), 18, 1–12.
Plumptre, A.J. (2000) Monitoring mammal populations with line transect
techniques in African forests. Journal of Applied Ecology, 37,
356–368.
Pollock, K.H. (1982) A capture-recapture design robust to unequal probability
of capture. Journal of Wildlife Management, 46, 752–757.
Pollock, K.H., Nichols, J.D., Brownie, C. & Hines, J.E. (1990) Statistical
inference for capture-recapture experiments. Wildlife Monographs,
107, 1–97.
Pucek, Z., Jedrzejewski, W., Jedrzejewska, B. & Pucek, M. (1993) Rodent
population dynamics in a primeval deciduous forest (Bialowieza
National Park) in relation to weather, seed crop and predation.
Acta Theriologica, 38, 199–232.
Seber, G.A.F. (1965) A note on the multiple recapture census. Biometrika,
52, 249–259.
Stenseth, N.C., Viljugrein, H., Jedrzejewski, W., Mysterud, A. & Pucek,
Z. (2002) Population dynamics of Clethrionomys glareoulus and
Apodemus flavicollis: seasonal components of density dependence
and density independence. Acta Theriologica, 47, 39–67.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2017 Giovanni Amori, Valentina De Silvestro, Paolo Ciucci, Luca Luiselli
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright in their articles.
Articles in the European Journal of Ecology published 2020 and after are made available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license.
Articles in the European Journal of Ecology published 2015-2019 are made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 license.
